The timing of HIV-1 infection of cells that persist on therapy is not strongly influenced by replication competency or cellular tropism of the provirus.

People with HIV-1 (PWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) can maintain undetectable virus levels, but a small pool of infected cells persists. This pool is largely comprised of defective proviruses that may produce HIV-1 proteins but are incapable of making infectious virus, with only a fraction (~10%) of these cells harboring intact viral genomes, some of which produce infectious virus following ex vivo stimulation (i.e. inducible intact proviruses). A majority of the inducible proviruses that persist on ART are formed near the time of therapy initiation. Here we compared proviral DNA (assessed here as 3' half genomes amplified from total cellular DNA) and inducible replication competent viruses in the pool of infected cells that persists during ART to determine if the original infection of these cells occurred at comparable times prior to therapy initiation. Overall, the average percent of proviruses that formed late (i.e. around the time of ART initiation, 60%) did not differ from the average percent of replication competent inducible viruses that formed late (69%), and this was also true for proviral DNA that was hypermutated (57%). Further, there was no evidence that entry into the long-lived infected cell pool was impeded by the ability to use the CXCR4 coreceptor, nor was the formation of long-lived infected cells enhanced during primary infection, when viral loads are exceptionally high. We observed that infection of cells that transitioned to be long-lived was enhanced among people with a lower nadir CD4+ T cell count. Together these data suggest that the timing of infection of cells that become long-lived is impacted more by biological processes associated with immunodeficiency before ART than the replication competency and/or cellular tropism of the infecting virus or the intactness of the provirus. Further research is needed to determine the mechanistic link between immunodeficiency and the timing of infected cells transitioning to the long-lived pool, particularly whether this is due to differences in infected cell clearance, turnover rates and/or homeostatic proliferation before and after ART.

Two-step evolution of HIV-1 budding system leading to pandemic in the human population.

The pandemic HIV-1, HIV-1 group M, emerged from a single spillover event of its ancestral lentivirus from a chimpanzee. During human-to-human spread worldwide, HIV-1 diversified into multiple subtypes. Here, our interdisciplinary investigation mainly sheds light on the evolutionary scenario of the viral budding system of HIV-1 subtype C (HIV-1C), a most successfully spread subtype. Of the two amino acid motifs for HIV-1 budding, the P(T/S)AP and YPxL motifs, HIV-1C loses the YPxL motif. Our data imply that HIV-1C might lose this motif to evade immune pressure. Additionally, the P(T/S)AP motif is duplicated dependently of the level of HIV-1 spread in the human population, and >20% of HIV-1C harbored the duplicated P(T/S)AP motif. We further show that the duplication of the P(T/S)AP motif is caused by the expansion of the CTG triplet repeat. Altogether, our results suggest that HIV-1 has experienced a two-step evolution of the viral budding process during human-to-human spread worldwide.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Replication Persists in the Human Lung for Several Weeks after Symptom Onset.

Rationale: In the upper respiratory tract, replicating (culturable) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is recoverable for ∼4-8 days after symptom onset, but there is a paucity of data about the frequency and duration of replicating virus in the lower respiratory tract (i.e., the human lung).Objectives: We undertook lung tissue sampling (needle biopsy) shortly after death in 42 mechanically ventilated decedents during the Beta and Delta waves. An independent group of 18 ambulatory patients served as a control group.Methods: Lung biopsy cores from decedents underwent viral culture, histopathological analysis, electron microscopy, transcriptomic profiling, and immunohistochemistry.Measurements and Main Results: Thirty-eight percent (16 of 42) of mechanically ventilated decedents had culturable virus in the lung for a median of 15 days (persisting for up to 4 wk) after symptom onset. Lung viral culture positivity was not associated with comorbidities or steroid use. Delta but not Beta variant lung culture positivity was associated with accelerated death and secondary bacterial infection (P < 0.05). Nasopharyngeal culture was negative in 23.1% (6 of 26) of decedents despite lung culture positivity. This hitherto undescribed biophenotype of lung-specific persisting viral replication was associated with an enhanced transcriptomic pulmonary proinflammatory response but with concurrent viral culture positivity.Conclusions: Concurrent rather than sequential active viral replication continues to drive a heightened proinflammatory response in the human lung beyond the second week of illness and was associated with variant-specific increased mortality and morbidity. These findings have potential implications for the design of interventional strategies and clinical management of patients with severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

Prevention efficacy of the broadly neutralizing antibody VRC01 depends on HIV-1 envelope sequence features.

In the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (HVTN 704/HPTN 085 and HVTN 703/HPTN 081), prevention efficacy (PE) of the monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 (vs. placebo) against HIV-1 acquisition diagnosis varied according to the HIV-1 Envelope (Env) neutralization sensitivity to VRC01, as measured by 80% inhibitory concentration (IC80). Here, we performed a genotypic sieve analysis, a complementary approach to gaining insight into correlates of protection that assesses how PE varies with HIV-1 sequence features. We analyzed HIV-1 Env amino acid (AA) sequences from the earliest available HIV-1 RNA-positive plasma samples from AMP participants diagnosed with HIV-1 and identified Env sequence features that associated with PE. The strongest Env AA sequence correlate in both trials was VRC01 epitope distance that quantifies the divergence of the VRC01 epitope in an acquired HIV-1 isolate from the VRC01 epitope of reference HIV-1 strains that were most sensitive to VRC01-mediated neutralization. In HVTN 704/HPTN 085, the Env sequence-based predicted probability that VRC01 IC80 against the acquired isolate exceeded 1 µg/mL also significantly associated with PE. In HVTN 703/HPTN 081, a physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance across 50 VRC01 binding-associated Env AA positions of the acquired isolate from the most VRC01-sensitive HIV-1 strain significantly associated with PE. These results suggest that incorporating mutation scoring by BLOSUM62 and weighting by the strength of interactions at AA positions in the epitope:VRC01 interface can optimize performance of an Env sequence-based biomarker of VRC01 prevention efficacy. Future work could determine whether these results extend to other bnAbs and bnAb combinations.

High monoclonal neutralization titers reduced breakthrough HIV-1 viral loads in the Antibody Mediated Prevention trials.

The Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (NCT02716675 and NCT02568215) demonstrated that passive administration of the broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody VRC01 could prevent some HIV-1 acquisition events. Here, we use mathematical modeling in a post hoc analysis to demonstrate that VRC01 influenced viral loads in AMP participants who acquired HIV. Instantaneous inhibitory potential (IIP), which integrates VRC01 serum concentration and VRC01 sensitivity of acquired viruses in terms of both IC50 and IC80, follows a dose-response relationship with first positive viral load (p = 0.03), which is particularly strong above a threshold of IIP = 1.6 (r = -0.6, p = 2e-4). Mathematical modeling reveals that VRC01 activity predicted from in vitro IC80s and serum VRC01 concentrations overestimates in vivo neutralization by 600-fold (95% CI: 300-1200). The trained model projects that even if future therapeutic HIV trials of combination monoclonal antibodies do not always prevent acquisition, reductions in viremia and reservoir size could be expected.

Anticipating HIV viral escape - resistance to active and passive immunization.

PURPOSE: Active and passive immunization strategies are challenged by the extraordinary diversity of HIV, and the need for high titers of neutralizing antibodies to confer protective immunity. This review summarises recent studies and the barrier that these interventions will need to overcome to prevent viral resistance. RECENT FINDINGS: Studies from the antibody mediated prevention trial identified a measure of protective titers, finding that higher titers than anticipated will be needed to prevent infection. This benchmark has advanced our ability to predict combinations of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) that will provide optimal coverage. To limit escape, these combinations should ensure that the majority of viruses are bound by a minimum of two antibodies. The characterization of currently circulating viruses has revealed increased resistance to some bNAbs over time, highlighting the need for continued surveillance, especially in under-studied populations and subtypes. Active vaccination will face similar challenges in combating diversity, although despite successes in germline targeting, this approach is not yet able to elicit bNAbs. SUMMARY: Cumulatively these studies highlight the need to target multiple antibody epitopes for maximum coverage, but also to restrict escape pathways. Successful immunization strategies should anticipate viral escape and devise strategies to counteract this.

Extended safety and tolerability of subcutaneous CAP256V2LS and VRC07-523LS in HIV-negative women: study protocol for the randomised, placebo-controlled double-blinded, phase 2 CAPRISA 012C trial.

INTRODUCTION: Women-controlled HIV prevention technologies that overcome adherence challenges of available daily oral pre-exposure prophylaxis and give women a choice of options are urgently needed. Broadly neutralising monoclonal antibodies (bnAbs) administered passively may offer a valuable non-antiretroviral biological intervention for HIV prevention. Animal and human studies have demonstrated that bnAbs which neutralise HIV can prevent infection. The optimal plasma antibody concentrations to confer protection against HIV infection in humans is under intense study. The Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA) 012C trial will evaluate extended safety and pharmacokinetics of CAP256V2LS and VRC07-523LS among young HIV-negative South African and Zambian women. The study design also allows for an evaluation of a signal of HIV prevention efficacy. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: CAPRISA 012 is a series of trials with three distinct protocols. The completed CAPRISA 012A and 012B phase 1 trials provided critical data for the CAPRISA 012C trial, which is divided into parts A and B. In part A, 90 participants were randomised to receive both CAP256V2LS and VRC07-523LS at 20 mg/kg or placebo, subcutaneously every 16 or 24 weeks. Part B will enrol 900 participants in South Africa and Zambia who will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio and receive an initial loading dose of 1.2 g of CAP256V2LS and VRC07-523LS or placebo followed by 600 mg of CAP256V2LS and 1.2 g of VRC07-523LS or placebo subcutaneously every 6 months. Safety will be assessed by frequency and severity of reactogenicity and other related adverse events. Pharmacokinetics of both antibodies will be measured in systemic and mucosal compartments over time, while participants will be monitored for breakthrough HIV infections. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION OF STUDY FINDINGS: The University of KwaZulu-Natal Biomedical Research Ethics Committee and South African Health Products Regulatory Authority have approved the trial (BREC/00002492/2021, SAHPRA20210317). Results will be disseminated through conference presentations, peer-reviewed publications and the clinical trial registry. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PACTR202112683307570.

Pharmacokinetic serum concentrations of VRC01 correlate with prevention of HIV-1 acquisition.

BACKGROUND: The phase 2b proof-of-concept Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials showed that VRC01, an anti-HIV-1 broadly neutralising antibody (bnAb), prevented acquisition of HIV-1 sensitive to VRC01. To inform future study design and dosing regimen selection of candidate bnAbs, we investigated the association of VRC01 serum concentration with HIV-1 acquisition using AMP trial data. METHODS: The case-control sample included 107 VRC01 recipients who acquired HIV-1 and 82 VRC01 recipients who remained without HIV-1 during the study. We measured VRC01 serum concentrations with a qualified pharmacokinetic (PK) Binding Antibody Multiplex Assay. We employed nonlinear mixed effects PK modelling to estimate daily-grid VRC01 concentrations. Cox regression models were used to assess the association of VRC01 concentration at exposure and baseline body weight, with the hazard of HIV-1 acquisition and prevention efficacy as a function of VRC01 concentration. We also compared fixed dosing vs. body weight-based dosing via simulations. FINDINGS: Estimated VRC01 concentrations in VRC01 recipients without HIV-1 were higher than those in VRC01 recipients who acquired HIV-1. Body weight was inversely associated with HIV-1 acquisition among both placebo and VRC01 recipients but did not modify the prevention efficacy of VRC01. VRC01 concentration was inversely correlated with HIV-1 acquisition, and positively correlated with prevention efficacy of VRC01. Simulation studies suggest that fixed dosing may be comparable to weight-based dosing in overall predicted prevention efficacy. INTERPRETATION: These findings suggest that bnAb serum concentration may be a useful marker for dosing regimen selection, and operationally efficient fixed dosing regimens could be considered for future trials of HIV-1 bnAbs. FUNDING: Was provided by the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) (UM1 AI068614, to the HIV Vaccine Trials Network [HVTN]; UM1 AI068635, to the HVTN Statistical Data and Management Center [SDMC], Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center [FHCC]; 2R37 054165 to the FHCC; UM1 AI068618, to HVTN Laboratory Center, FHCC; UM1 AI068619, to the HPTN Leadership and Operations Center; UM1 AI068613, to the HIV Prevention Trials Network [HPTN] Laboratory Center; UM1 AI068617, to the HPTN SDMC; and P30 AI027757, to the Center for AIDS Research, Duke University (AI P30 AI064518) and University of Washington (P30 AI027757) Centers for AIDS Research; R37AI054165 from NIAID to the FHCC; and OPP1032144 CA-VIMC Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Neutralization profiles of HIV-1 viruses from the VRC01 Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials.

The VRC01 Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) efficacy trials conducted between 2016 and 2020 showed for the first time that passively administered broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) could prevent HIV-1 acquisition against bnAb-sensitive viruses. HIV-1 viruses isolated from AMP participants who acquired infection during the study in the sub-Saharan African (HVTN 703/HPTN 081) and the Americas/European (HVTN 704/HPTN 085) trials represent a panel of currently circulating strains of HIV-1 and offer a unique opportunity to investigate the sensitivity of the virus to broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) being considered for clinical development. Pseudoviruses were constructed using envelope sequences from 218 individuals. The majority of viruses identified were clade B and C; with clades A, D, F and G and recombinants AC and BF detected at lower frequencies. We tested eight bnAbs in clinical development (VRC01, VRC07-523LS, 3BNC117, CAP256.25, PGDM1400, PGT121, 10-1074 and 10E8v4) for neutralization against all AMP placebo viruses (n = 76). Compared to older clade C viruses (1998-2010), the HVTN703/HPTN081 clade C viruses showed increased resistance to VRC07-523LS and CAP256.25. At a concentration of 1µg/ml (IC80), predictive modeling identified the triple combination of V3/V2-glycan/CD4bs-targeting bnAbs (10-1074/PGDM1400/VRC07-523LS) as the best against clade C viruses and a combination of MPER/V3/CD4bs-targeting bnAbs (10E8v4/10-1074/VRC07-523LS) as the best against clade B viruses, due to low coverage of V2-glycan directed bnAbs against clade B viruses. Overall, the AMP placebo viruses represent a valuable resource for defining the sensitivity of contemporaneous circulating viral strains to bnAbs and highlight the need to update reference panels regularly. Our data also suggests that combining bnAbs in passive immunization trials would improve coverage of global viruses.

Optimized SMRT-UMI protocol produces highly accurate sequence datasets from diverse populations - application to HIV-1 quasispecies.

Pathogen diversity resulting in quasispecies can enable persistence and adaptation to host defenses and therapies. However, accurate quasispecies characterization can be impeded by errors introduced during sample handling and sequencing which can require extensive optimizations to overcome. We present complete laboratory and bioinformatics workflows to overcome many of these hurdles. The Pacific Biosciences single molecule real-time platform was used to sequence PCR amplicons derived from cDNA templates tagged with universal molecular identifiers (SMRT-UMI). Optimized laboratory protocols were developed through extensive testing of different sample preparation conditions to minimize between-template recombination during PCR and the use of UMI allowed accurate template quantitation as well as removal of point mutations introduced during PCR and sequencing to produce a highly accurate consensus sequence from each template. Handling of the large datasets produced from SMRT-UMI sequencing was facilitated by a novel bioinformatic pipeline, Probabilistic Offspring Resolver for Primer IDs (PORPIDpipeline), that automatically filters and parses reads by sample, identifies and discards reads with UMIs likely created from PCR and sequencing errors, generates consensus sequences, checks for contamination within the dataset, and removes any sequence with evidence of PCR recombination or early cycle PCR errors, resulting in highly accurate sequence datasets. The optimized SMRT-UMI sequencing method presented here represents a highly adaptable and established starting point for accurate sequencing of diverse pathogens. These methods are illustrated through characterization of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) quasispecies.

Changing character and waning impact of COVID-19 at a tertiary centre in Cape Town, South Africa.

Background: The emergence of genetic variants of SARS-CoV-2 was associated with changing epidemiological characteristics throughout coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in population-based studies. Individual-level data on the clinical characteristics of infection with different SARS-CoV-2 variants in African countries is less well documented. Objectives: To describe the evolving clinical differences observed with the various SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and compare the Omicron-driven wave in infections to the previous Delta-driven wave. Method: We performed a retrospective observational cohort study among patients admitted to a South African referral hospital with COVID-19 pneumonia. Patients were stratified by epidemiological wave period, and in a subset, the variants associated with each wave were confirmed by genomic sequencing. Outcomes were analysed by Cox proportional hazard models. Results: We included 1689 patients were included, representing infection waves driven predominantly by ancestral, Beta, Delta and Omicron BA1/BA2 & BA4/BA5 variants. Crude 28-day mortality was 25.8% (34/133) in the Omicron wave period versus 37.1% (138/374) in the Delta wave period (hazard ratio [HR] 0.68 [95% CI 0.47-1.00] p = 0.049); this effect persisted after adjustment for age, gender, HIV status and presence of cardiovascular disease (adjusted HR [aHR] 0.43 [95% CI 0.28-0.67] p < 0.001). Hospital-wide SARS-CoV-2 admissions and deaths were highest during the Delta wave period, with a decoupling of SARS-CoV-2 deaths and overall deaths thereafter. Conclusion: There was lower in-hospital mortality during Omicron-driven waves compared with the prior Delta wave, despite patients admitted during the Omicron wave being at higher risk. Contribution: This study summarises clinical characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2 variants during the COVID-19 pandemic at a South African tertiary hospital, demonstrating a waning impact of COVID-19 on healthcare services over time despite epidemic waves driven by new variants. Findings suggest the absence of increasing virulence from later variants and protection from population and individual-level immunity.

Neutralization titer biomarker for antibody-mediated prevention of HIV-1 acquisition.

The Antibody Mediated Prevention trials showed that the broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 prevented acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) sensitive to VRC01. Using AMP trial data, here we show that the predicted serum neutralization 80% inhibitory dilution titer (PT80) biomarker-which quantifies the neutralization potency of antibodies in an individual's serum against an HIV-1 isolate-can be used to predict HIV-1 prevention efficacy. Similar to the results of nonhuman primate studies, an average PT80 of 200 (meaning a bnAb concentration 200-fold higher than that required to reduce infection by 80% in vitro) against a population of probable exposing viruses was estimated to be required for 90% prevention efficacy against acquisition of these viruses. Based on this result, we suggest that the goal of sustained PT80 <200 against 90% of circulating viruses can be achieved by promising bnAb regimens engineered for long half-lives. We propose the PT80 biomarker as a surrogate endpoint for evaluatinon of bnAb regimens, and as a tool for benchmarking candidate bnAb-inducing vaccines.

HIV Coinfection Provides Insights for the Design of Vaccine Cocktails to Elicit Broadly Neutralizing Antibodies.

Induction of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) to HIV and other diverse pathogens will likely require the use of multiple immunogens. An understanding of the dynamics of antibody development to multiple diverse but related antigens would facilitate the rational design of immunization strategies. Here, we characterize, in detail, the development of neutralizing antibodies in three individuals coinfected with several divergent HIV variants. Two of these coinfected individuals developed additive or cross-neutralizing antibody responses. However, interference was observed in the third case, with neutralizing antibody responses to one viral variant arising to the near exclusion of neutralizing responses to the other. Longitudinal characterization of the diversity in the Envelope glycoprotein trimer (Env) structure showed that in the individual who developed the broadest neutralizing antibodies, circulating viruses shared a conserved epitope on the trimer apex that was targeted by cross-neutralizing antibodies. In contrast, in the other two individuals, diversity was distributed across Env. Taken together, these data highlight that multiple related immunogens can result in immune interference. However, they also suggest that immunogen cocktails presenting shared, conserved neutralizing epitopes in a variable background may focus broadly neutralizing antibody responses to these targets. IMPORTANCE Despite being the focus of extensive research, we still do not know how to reproducibly elicit cross-neutralizing antibodies against variable pathogens by vaccination. Here, we characterize the antibody responses in people coinfected with more than one HIV variant, providing insights into how the use of antigen "cocktails" might affect the breadth of the elicited neutralizing antibody response and how the relatedness of the antigens may shape this.

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 in South Africa.

Three lineages (BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3) of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant of concern predominantly drove South Africa's fourth Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) wave. We have now identified two new lineages, BA.4 and BA.5, responsible for a fifth wave of infections. The spike proteins of BA.4 and BA.5 are identical, and similar to BA.2 except for the addition of 69-70 deletion (present in the Alpha variant and the BA.1 lineage), L452R (present in the Delta variant), F486V and the wild-type amino acid at Q493. The two lineages differ only outside of the spike region. The 69-70 deletion in spike allows these lineages to be identified by the proxy marker of S-gene target failure, on the background of variants not possessing this feature. BA.4 and BA.5 have rapidly replaced BA.2, reaching more than 50% of sequenced cases in South Africa by the first week of April 2022. Using a multinomial logistic regression model, we estimated growth advantages for BA.4 and BA.5 of 0.08 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.08-0.09) and 0.10 (95% CI: 0.09-0.11) per day, respectively, over BA.2 in South Africa. The continued discovery of genetically diverse Omicron lineages points to the hypothesis that a discrete reservoir, such as human chronic infections and/or animal hosts, is potentially contributing to further evolution and dispersal of the virus.

Improved oral detection is a characteristic of Omicron infection and has implications for clinical sampling and tissue tropism.

BACKGROUND: The Omicron variant of concern is characterised by more than 50 distinct mutations, most in the spike protein. The implications of these for disease transmission, tissue tropism and diagnostic testing needs study. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the performance of RT-PCR on saliva (SA) swabs and antigen testing on mid-turbinate MT samples relative to RT-PCR on MT swabs. Patients (n = 453) presenting for outpatient testing at the Groote Schuur Hospital COVID-19 testing centre in Cape Town South Africa were recruited. Participants were recruited during the Delta (n = 304) and Omicron (n = 149) waves. RESULTS: In 30 confirmed Delta infections, positive percent agreement (PPA) of RT-PCR on saliva was only 73% compared to a composite standard of either MT or SA RT-PCR positivity, with rapid decay by day 3 after symptom onset. In contrast, in the 70 Omicron infections, SA performed as well as, or better than, MT samples up to day 5, with an overall PPA of SA swabs of 96% and MT of 93%. A change in antigen test performance was noted, with PPA of 93% in Delta, but only 68% for Omicron. CONCLUSIONS: Altered shedding kinetics appear to be present in Omicron-infected patients with more viral RNA detectable in saliva. Saliva swabs are a promising alternative to nasal samples, especially early in infection when sampling of both sites could improve detection. Lower sensitivity of antigen tests in Omicron is a concern and requires further study.

Emergence and phenotypic characterization of the global SARS-CoV-2 C.1.2 lineage.

Global genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 has identified variants associated with increased transmissibility, neutralization resistance and disease severity. Here we report the emergence of the PANGO lineage C.1.2, detected at low prevalence in South Africa and eleven other countries. The initial C.1.2 detection is associated with a high substitution rate, and includes changes within the spike protein that have been associated with increased transmissibility or reduced neutralization sensitivity in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern or variants of interest. Like Beta and Delta, C.1.2 shows significantly reduced neutralization sensitivity to plasma from vaccinees and individuals infected with the ancestral D614G virus. In contrast, convalescent donors infected with either Beta or Delta show high plasma neutralization against C.1.2. These functional data suggest that vaccine efficacy against C.1.2 will be equivalent to Beta and Delta, and that prior infection with either Beta or Delta will likely offer protection against C.1.2.

Selection Analysis Identifies Clusters of Unusual Mutational Changes in Omicron Lineage BA.1 That Likely Impact Spike Function.

Among the 30 nonsynonymous nucleotide substitutions in the Omicron S-gene are 13 that have only rarely been seen in other SARS-CoV-2 sequences. These mutations cluster within three functionally important regions of the S-gene at sites that will likely impact (1) interactions between subunits of the Spike trimer and the predisposition of subunits to shift from down to up configurations, (2) interactions of Spike with ACE2 receptors, and (3) the priming of Spike for membrane fusion. We show here that, based on both the rarity of these 13 mutations in intrapatient sequencing reads and patterns of selection at the codon sites where the mutations occur in SARS-CoV-2 and related sarbecoviruses, prior to the emergence of Omicron the mutations would have been predicted to decrease the fitness of any virus within which they occurred. We further propose that the mutations in each of the three clusters therefore cooperatively interact to both mitigate their individual fitness costs, and, in combination with other mutations, adaptively alter the function of Spike. Given the evident epidemic growth advantages of Omicron overall previously known SARS-CoV-2 lineages, it is crucial to determine both how such complex and highly adaptive mutation constellations were assembled within the Omicron S-gene, and why, despite unprecedented global genomic surveillance efforts, the early stages of this assembly process went completely undetected.

Assessing the clinical severity of the Omicron variant in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, using the diagnostic PCR proxy marker of RdRp target delay to distinguish between Omicron and Delta infections - a survival analysis.

BACKGROUND: At present, it is unclear whether the extent of reduced risk of severe disease seen with SARS-Cov-2 Omicron variant infection is caused by a decrease in variant virulence or by higher levels of population immunity. METHODS: RdRp target delay (RTD) in the Seegene AllplexTM 2019-nCoV PCR assay is a proxy marker for the Delta variant. The absence of this proxy marker in the transition period was used to identify suspected Omicron infections. Cox regression was performed for the outcome of hospital admission in those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on the Seegene AllplexTM assay from November 1 to December 14, 2021 in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, in the public sector. Adjustments were made for vaccination status and prior diagnosis of infection. RESULTS: A total of 150 cases with RTD and 1486 cases without RTD were included. Cases without RTD had a lower hazard of admission (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34-0.91). Complete vaccination was protective against admission, with an aHR of 0.45 (95% CI, 0.26-0.77). CONCLUSION: Omicron has resulted in a lower risk of hospital admission compared with contemporaneous Delta infection, when using the proxy marker of RTD. Under-ascertainment of reinfections with an immune escape variant remains a challenge to accurately assessing variant virulence.

Selection analysis identifies unusual clustered mutational changes in Omicron lineage BA.1 that likely impact Spike function.

Among the 30 non-synonymous nucleotide substitutions in the Omicron S-gene are 13 that have only rarely been seen in other SARS-CoV-2 sequences. These mutations cluster within three functionally important regions of the S-gene at sites that will likely impact (i) interactions between subunits of the Spike trimer and the predisposition of subunits to shift from down to up configurations, (ii) interactions of Spike with ACE2 receptors, and (iii) the priming of Spike for membrane fusion. We show here that, based on both the rarity of these 13 mutations in intrapatient sequencing reads and patterns of selection at the codon sites where the mutations occur in SARS-CoV-2 and related sarbecoviruses, prior to the emergence of Omicron the mutations would have been predicted to decrease the fitness of any genomes within which they occurred. We further propose that the mutations in each of the three clusters therefore cooperatively interact to both mitigate their individual fitness costs, and adaptively alter the function of Spike. Given the evident epidemic growth advantages of Omicron over all previously known SARS-CoV-2 lineages, it is crucial to determine both how such complex and highly adaptive mutation constellations were assembled within the Omicron S-gene, and why, despite unprecedented global genomic surveillance efforts, the early stages of this assembly process went completely undetected.